ABSTRACT
Objective To compare the accuracy of the seasonal time series decomposition method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in the prediction of incidence of tuberculosis(TB) in order to facilitate early-warning.Methods The seasonal decomposition model and ARIMA model were constructed by SPSS20.0 software based on time series of monthly TB incidence between January 2005 and December 2014 in Urumqi,China.The obtained models were used to forecast the monthly incidence in 2015 and compared with the actual incidence respectively.Results Between 2005 and 2014,the incidence of TB was higher during March,April and May in Urumqi.A linear fitting model and a cubic curve fitting model were constructed by the time series seasonal decomposition method.The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 18.75% and 92.25%,respectively.The predicted values of the linear model were lower than actual values and the predicted values of the cubic curve model were higher than actual values.An ARIMA (2,1,1) (1,1,0)12 fitting model was established by ARIMA method.The MAPE of each predicted monthly incidence in 2015 was 9.46% and there were no significant differences between the predicted and actual values.Conclusion The ARIMA method is better than the seasonal decomposition method for predicting the monthly incidence of TB in Urumqi.
ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the epidemiologic characteristics and epidemic intensity of measles in China between 2005 and 2013 , and to provide evidence for reasonable allocation of health resources and measles elimination in China . Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to measles surveillance data and demographic information during this study.Results A total of 597 594 cases, including 366 deaths, were reported from all over China , among whom 355 409 were males (59.47%) and 242 185 were females (40.53%).The average annual incidence was 5.07/100 000 and the average annual mortality was 0.0031/100 000.The majority of cases were children under 10 years old, accouning for 64.64%.Conclusion The incidence of measles in China is decreasing .Measles mainly occurrs in spring and there is significant difference between age and gender groups , and obvious regional differences are also found .
ABSTRACT
Objective To investigate the effects of different anesthesia methods on oxidative stress in elderly patients undergoing neurosurgery.Methods Totally 60 patients undergoing neurosurgery were randomly divided into 3 groups:propofol group,isoflurane group and sevoflurane group (n-20 each group),heart rate(HR) and mean artery pressure(MAP) in all patients were recorded at the time points of pre anesthesia (T0),incision of skin (T1),incision of dura (T2),end of operation (T3).The activity of superoxide dismuase (SOD),catalase (CAT),and glutathione peroxidase (GSH-Px) were measured at the time of T0,6 h (T4),24 h (T5),48 h (T6),72 h (T7)after operation.The efficacy of anesthesia was evaluated by Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) at 3 months after operation.Results The activity of SOD,CAT and GSH Px in 3 groups were lower at T5and T6 than at T0 (P＜0.05).The SOD activity at T4,T5,T5and TTwere higher in propofol group [(87.2±11.8) U/ml,(75.1±12.4) U/ml,(84.6±9.3) U/ml,(92.5±12.5) U/ml,respectively]than in isoflurane group [(75.0±12.2) U/ml,(63.8±8.9) U/ml,(70.3±9.0) U/ml,(82.5±13.5) U/ml,respectively] and in sevoflurane group [(79.4±10.4) U/ml,(68.7±10.5) U/ml,(72.0±10.9) U/ml,(85.17±8.41) U/ml,respectively] (all P＜0.05).The CAT activity at T5 was higher in propofol group [(66.59±7.21) U/ml] than in isaflurane group [(51.58±8.19) U/ml] and in sevoflurane group [(58.49±7.27) U/ml] (both P＜0.05).The GSH-Px activity was higher at T4,T5and T6 in group propofol[(159.2 ± 20.8) U,(140.7 ± 16.2) U,(152.3 ± 19.1) U,respectively] than in isoflurane group [(129.4±17.9) U,(108.3±15.9) U,(118.4±14.1) U,respectively] and in sevoflurane group [(140.1±15.8) U,(125.2± 17.1) U,(137.9±10.7) U,respectively] (all P＜0.05).The outcome of neurosurgery had no significant differences among the 3 groups (P＞0.05).Conclusions Propofol has a better effect on oxidative stress than isoflurane and sevoflurane in elderly patients undergoing neurosurgery.
ABSTRACT
Objective To compare the effects of dezocine and fentanyl on analgesia and cognitive state for elderly patients after neurosurgery.Methods A total of 42 elderly patients with brain tumors and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Ⅱ-Ⅲ were randomly divided into two groups:Dezocine group and fentanyl group (n=21,each).The time of recovery and extubation,pain intensity descriptive scale (PIDS),Ramsay score and mini-mental state examination (MMSE) before operation,and 1 h,2 h and 3 h after extubation were recorded.Results The time of recovery [(15.9±2.8) min vs.(16.2 ± 4.3)] min and extubation [(22.4 ± 5.1) min vs.(23.8 3.7) min] between the two groups had no differences (both P＞0.05).And there were no statistical differences between the two groups in Ramsay and MMSE score at 1 h,2 h,3 h after extubation and on PIDS at 1 h after extubation (all P＞ 0.05).The PIDS were lower in Dezocine group than in fentanyl group at 2 h[(2.01±0.79)scores vs.(2.55±0.51)scores,(t =-2.24,P=0.04))] and 3 h after extubation [(2.30±0.66)scores vs.(2.75±0.64)scores,(t =-2.44,P=0.03)].Conclusions The using of dezocine and fentanyl before the end of operation could have a good sedative and analgesia effect on neurosurgery without influence on the duration of recovery and extubation,and dezocine may maintain a longer time of analgesia than fentanyl in elderly patients.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of conscious state-monitoring device based on time-frequency-balanced spectral entropy of electroencephalogram monitoring during neumsurgical operation.Methods:Sixty-six patients scheduled for elective neumsurgical operation were randomly divided into two groups:control group(Ⅰ group,n=30)and observation group(Ⅱ group,n=36).Patients in control group were titrated to maintain adequate conscious state based on the monitoring of stable intraoperative hemodynamics.In the observation group,anesthetic was given to adjust to maintain the spectral entropy value to keep the adequate conscious state during operation.The values of mean arterial blood pressure (MAP),heart rate(HR),state entropy(SE)and response entropy(RE)were recorded before anesthesia induction,skin incision,at 3 min after intubation,at brain tissue dissection and during the last 10 min.And the parameters before recovery from anesthesia,the total amount of narcotic given were also recorded.Results:The values of SE and RE were significantly lower in the observation group than those in control group at 3 rain after intubation,skin incision,at brain tissue dissection and during the last 10 min,whereas MAP and HR were higher in control group compared with those of the observation group(P ＜ 0.05 or P ＜0.01).The recovery index including recovery time of spontaneous breathing,time to eye opening and extubation was significantly decreased in observation group than that in the control group(P ＜ 0.05 or P ＜ 0.01).The total amount of narcotic consumption was significantly higher in the control group than that of the observation group(P ＜ 0.01).Conclusion:During neumsurgical operation,the monitoring of conscious state by spectral entropy is more effective and better than hemodynamic standard practice.
ABSTRACT
0.05).Compared with control group,CO and SI were significantly higher in creatine phosphate group during operation(t=4.019,P